Selected Publications

A large number of realistic weather paths were generated based on output from a single GCM. The simulated weather paths were used to include weather uncertainty in electricity demand forecasting, in order to present a probabilistic electricity demand forecast for Brazil 2016–2100. Annual Brazilian electricity demand will peak around 2060 at about 1071–1200 TWh, and there is significant weather uncertainty, with approx. 400 TWh separating the 10th and 90th percentiles.
In Energy, 2016

Recent Publications

. Climate Change Scenarios for Paraguayan Power Demand 2017-2050. Climatic Change, 2019.

Preprint Project Project DOI

. Optimizing community trees using the open tree of life increases the reliability of phylogenetic diversity and dispersion indices. Ecological Informatics, 2018.

PDF Code

. Optimal Fiscal Policy: A Dynamic Analysis for Brazil. In ANPEC Sul, 2017.

PDF

. Soil and altitude drives diversity and functioning of Brazilian (Campo de Altitude). In J Plant Ecol, 2016.

DOI

. Optimal LNG (liquefied natural gas) regasification scheduling for import terminals with storage. In Energy, 2016.

DOI

. Climate Change and Electricity Demand in Brazil: A Stochastic Approach. In Energy, 2016.

PDF DOI

Recent & Upcoming Talks

Computational Tricks for Numeric Stochastic Dynamic Programming: Solving a Large Example with (Relative Ease)
Sep 4, 2018 16:00

Recent Posts

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Great news: I had a paper accepted in Climatic Change – a journal that I really enjoy, and follow almost religiously: that journal has some real zingers!

My former student Angel and I have for two years been working on understanding the impacts of climatic change on electric power demand in Paraguay and projecting it into the future, and this paper was written and rewritten and rewritten again several times, as we gained deeper insights into the Paraguayan energy sector.

The future of Paraguayan energy is a very important question: Firstly, few studies have been done to understand the impacts of climate change on the energy sector in South America (actually, developing countries in general), and this should help fill a gap in the literature. Secondly, Paraguay has massive potential for hydroelectric energy, but the distribution and transmission infrastructure is completely inadequate, so the potential hasn’t contributed to economic growth or development the way it could have – a deeper understanding of the issue may help unlock some growth potential. And, finally, the renegotiation of the Itaipu treaty with Brazil (expires in 2023) is scheduled to start this year, and demand projections will be needed to see if the Paraguay will have a large oversupply, as they have historically, or if they will need the power themselves (spoiler: not only will the oversupply disappear within the next two decades, but they also have to start thinking about expanding the generation capacity!).

While the article is in press, you can read the accepted manuscript by following the link below!

More info on the publication here!

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We are hosting the 31st International Seminar on Economic Policy here at UFV on the 6th and 7th of November, 2019. The theme this year will be energy, transport and development, and we are already planning a great programme, with lots of interesting speakers. Sadly, funding is a huge uncertainty for any such events in Brazil these days – the event will probably go ahead regardless of the funding, but funding is essential for bringing in the greatest speakers from all over.

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I’m on the organising committee of the 30th International Seminar on Economic Policy (SIPE), the 13th and 14th of September, 2018. SIPE is an annual event at the Department of Agricultural Economics, UFV. Fot the 30th anniversary, the event will be especially great, with the main theme being “Sustainability and Perspectives for the Brazilian Agriculture”. Certainly, there will be much interesting discussion around the latest Brazilian agricultural census that has just been released, and plenty of other interesting topics related to the future of Brazilian agriculture.

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When doing research – venturing into the great unknown – one does not always know if one’s ideas will work out or not. I think it is inevitable that one spends time pursuing and nurturing some idea that, in the very end, turns out not to be so good. Or downright terrible, in some cases. Although some may not find this kind of thing worthy to discuss, maybe a small note here could help some other researcher avoid wasting their precious time and coming to the same dead end. So here’s a little story of my failed idea.

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The research project on quantum computing and stochastic dynamic optimisation is just hitting its stride, and we’re getting closer to showing some very exciting results!

The project is well underway – about halfway through its planned course – so it’s about time to take stock and see where this is going.

CONTINUE READING

Projects

Developing the Norwegian Energy System in the European Energy Transition (NORENS)

What will be the role of the Norwegian electric sector in the ongoing transition of the European energy system?

Reverse the Curse: Can Quantum Computing Lift Bellman’s Curse of Dimensionality?

We study approximation methods and the application of quantum computing to stochastic dynamic optimisation problems.

Accelerating Numerical Stochastic Dynamic Optimisation for Applied Economics

We are developing new and faster ways of solve stochastic dynamic optimisation problems numerically.

PAEG

A Computable General Equlibrium (CGE) model for Brazil, based on GTAP, with separate modelling of the five Brazilian macro-regions.

Teaching

At the Federal University of Viçosa, I teach the following courses:

  • ERU403: Mathematical Economics I
  • ERU407: Macroeconomics Applied to Agribusiness II
  • ERU706: Macroeconomic Theory III
  • ERU730: Computable General Equilibrium Models

Contact